Sunday, 27 January 2019

Trapping volume

At a peak formation low or a peak formation high, several spikes may appear which are all apparently contained by a trend-line.  But what is really happening here?  The MM is trapping volume and it is important to notice that each subsequent spike it is not lower (or higher) than the previous so that any new trades taken in the direction of the spike do not have an opportunity to become profitable.  They become trapped.

So in the example below, the peak low is identified and followed by 2 further downward spikes.  The important feature to notice is that each of the spikes is higher than the previous which prevents short position holders from taking any profit whilst potentially encouraging new shorts in this region. In a similar way to the mechanism of trapping volume, a wedge or pennant pattern works in much the same way except that it is trapping volume in both directions.
On the lower boundary of the wedge, the peaks become slightly higher each time it comes down to the line.  This has the effect of ensuring that none of the trades that are taken short in these regions can turn a profit.  Similarly, on the upper boundary of the wedge, the same thing is happening with each of the peaks becoming progressively lower and trapping the higher level longs and pulling them down.

There is no way of predicting which direction the price will ultimately breakout.  This will be determined by the net volumes that occur.  In other words, if there is a greater build-up of short positions over the long positions, then the wedge will break up.




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